Why Premier League clubs spend big on low-scoring wingers

Premier League clubs are spending major transfer fees on wide attackers who complete high volumes of dribbles but generate relatively low goal and assist totals. The trend highlights a potential rift between traditional scouting metrics and attacking efficiency in English football.

High fees for low goal production

The situation is highlighted by Manchester City’s €70 million transfer for Iliman Ndiaye. The 26-year-old Senegalese international recorded 72 completed take-ons last season, second in the Premier League behind teammate Jérémy Doku. The prior year, Ndiaye finished fourth in the league with 75 completed take-ons while playing for Everton.

Despite his dribbling metrics, Ndiaye produced 11 non-penalty goals and three assists across two Premier League seasons with Everton, averaging 0.25 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes. Last season, 96 qualifying Premier League players posted higher per-minute attacking figures.

A trend across top-tier transfers

Ndiaye is part of a broader pattern of high-priced acquisitions. Data from Transfermarkt indicates Premier League teams have spent at least €40 million in transfer fees on 23 different wingers over the past three seasons.

In soccer analytics, expected goals and expected assists (xG+xA) excluding penalties are widely used to measure an attacking player’s direct threat. A combined rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes serves as a standard baseline for above-average offensive contribution. When excluding four players signed from outside Europe’s top five leagues, only five of the remaining 19 high-cost wingers reached that 0.5 benchmark in the season preceding their transfers: Bradley Barcola, Dango Ouattara, Noni Madueke, Ibrahim Mbaye, and Brennan Johnson.

Tactical evolution from crosses to shots

Historically, wingers were tasked with remaining near the touchline and crossing to central strikers. However, statistical data shows crosses result in goals between 1% and 3% of the time, making the tactic relatively inefficient.

A tactical shift led by players such as Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Arjen Robben, Gareth Bale, Neymar, and Mohamed Salah reshaped the expectations of the position. By moving inward to shoot rather than cross, wide players capitalized on average shot conversion rates of roughly 10%. Transforming a wide possession into a direct shot rather than a cross boosts scoring probability by 233% to 900%. Despite this historical evolution toward wide goalscoring, recent recruitment suggests top clubs are once again placing heavy market values on line-breaking dribblers over proven direct scorers.

Background

Wide play in top-tier European football has undergone major tactical shifts over the past two decades. While traditional wingers focused on touchline play and delivery into the penalty box, modern tactical schemes increasingly demand that wide attackers double as primary goal scorers. As prominent goal-scoring wingers transition out of the Premier League, clubs continue to weigh the commercial and tactical value of elite dribbling against measurable output in goals and assists.