U.S.-Iran Conflict Shifts to Maritime Blockade and Economic Attrition After Six Months

Six months into an ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, Washington’s operational focus has transitioned toward sustained economic pressure and maritime containment, according to shipping metrics and military assessments.

The military campaign, which began with efforts to quickly degrade Tehran’s military infrastructure, has turned into a prolonged naval blockade intended to cut off the Iranian government’s primary financial resources. Data from the energy tracking firm Kpler reveals that Iran’s official northern shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz now accounts for only a minor fraction of tanker traffic. More than 80 percent of vessel transits in the strategic chokepoint are currently classified as dark or untracked, while several commercial operators have shifted to alternative shipping routes, such as an U.S.-backed southern corridor along the coast of Oman.

While the blockade has severely curtailed Iranian crude oil exports and diminished transit fee collection, the wider confrontation has caused notable instability in global energy markets. The conflict has resulted in widespread disruptions to global oil supplies, while Iranian forces have launched military attacks affecting 11 nations across the region, including U.S. partners in the Gulf.

The physical state of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains divided following heavy military action. Airstrikes conducted in June 2025 against sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan eliminated Iran’s principal facility for converting enriched uranium into metal required for nuclear weapons, while also causing severe damage to its centrifuge manufacturing network.

However, construction and structural reinforcement have persisted at Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried underground complex. Analysts assess that the fortified facility could eventually be used to rebuild components of Iran’s enrichment and centrifuge programs. These ongoing developments at Pickaxe Mountain, alongside persistent strikes on commercial vessels, prompted the U.S. administration to abandon the June Memorandum of Understanding, asserting that Tehran violated terms meant to maintain the nuclear status quo.

Internally, Iran faces severe domestic economic strains. Standard trade with China—the regime’s primary remaining commercial customer—has fallen sharply, while military strikes on energy infrastructure have reduced domestic natural gas output. The national currency has lost substantial value, leading to a steep increase in domestic poverty. In response to the possibility of resumed military operations, commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that they would deploy weapons “completely different” from any used previously in the conflict.

Background

Tensions between Washington and Tehran escalated into sustained military actions following targeted strikes on key Iranian nuclear and industrial sites in June 2025. The ongoing conflict centres on international concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, control of major oil shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and broader security dynamics across the Middle East.