ESPN Analyst Projects Five NFL Teams to Decline in 2026 Season

ESPN sports analyst Bill Barnwell has published his annual projections for the 2026 National Football League regular season, identifying five franchises expected to record fewer victories than in the previous campaign. The list names the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, and New England Patriots as primary candidates for statistical regression.

Barnwell’s forecasting model relies on underlying performance indicators, including point differential, performance in close outcomes, and upcoming strength of schedule. Since 2017, his selections for declining teams have compiled a 34–9 record in correctly identifying win-total decreases, accounting for the league’s shift to a 17-game schedule. Across both improvement and decline forecasts, his selections hold a 69–17 overall record, along with a 50–36 mark against archived preseason betting lines. On average, designated teams experience a drop of approximately 3.4 victories per season.

During the 2025 season, the model correctly predicted regression for four of five highlighted franchises. The Minnesota Vikings dropped from 14–3 to 9–8, the Washington Commanders fell from 12–5 to 5–12, and the Detroit Lions slipped from 15–2 to 9–8. The Kansas City Chiefs experienced the largest drop, falling from 15–2 to 6–11 and missing the postseason for the first time since 2014 following a torn ACL sustained by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and a 1–9 record in one-score games. The single incorrect prediction was the Indianapolis Colts, who finished 8–9 after an 8–2 start was disrupted by injuries to quarterback Daniel Jones and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

Among the primary focus areas for 2026 are the Chicago Bears, who posted an 11–6 record in 2025 despite a modest plus-26 point differential and a 7–4 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. Head coach Ben Johnson acknowledged the analytical outlook, describing his squad as the “No. 1 regression candidate” entering the season. ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Chicago’s upcoming schedule as the 10th most difficult in the league. Conversely, Barnwell projects that teams such as the Chiefs and Lions will reverse their 2025 downturns and rebound in 2026.

Background

The NFL relies on competitive parity mechanisms, such as salary caps, draft ordering, and scheduling, designed to balance team performance over time. Teams that overperform relative to their overall point differential or achieve disproportionate success in tight, one-score games frequently experience regression toward the league average in subsequent years. In 2021, the NFL expanded its regular-season format from 16 to 17 games, shifting base win metrics across the league.