Ethiopia’s Pretoria Peace Deal Strained as TPLF Regroups and Clashes Resurface

Nearly four years after Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed a peace deal in Pretoria, unresolved territorial, security, and political disputes are threatening the stability of northern Ethiopia. Despite initial disarmament steps, the TPLF has repositioned itself politically and retained military capacity, while new armed skirmishes and shifting regional alliances raise concerns over the durability of the peace process.

The November 2022 Pretoria Agreement formally ended two years of severe war between federal forces and the TPLF. The treaty mandated a permanent cessation of hostilities, the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration of Tigrayan combatants, and strict prohibitions against conscription or military mobilization under Article 7. Although Tigrayan forces surrendered heavy weaponry and thousands of fighters entered demobilisation programs, regional military structures were not completely dismantled.

Political Restructuring and Security Violations

Internal political friction within the TPLF led to major leadership changes in Tigray following the war. Getachew Reda was removed as head of the interim administration in 2025 and replaced by Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede. In May 2026, the reinstated Tigray regional council elected Debretsion Gebremichael as president, consolidating power around his political faction.

In addition to political shifts, reports surfaced in 2026 of renewed recruitment and forced mobilization within Tigray, directly challenging the terms of the Pretoria deal. A civilian source in Tigray speaking anonymously expressed fear over the developing situation, stating, “The people of Tigray want peace; we don’t want a second war.”

Resurgent Military Conflict

Lingering political disputes erupted into direct military engagements in early 2026. In January 2026, fighters aligned with the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) crossed the Tekeze River into the disputed Tselemt district, clashing with Ethiopian federal troops. TDF-aligned forces later took control of the towns of Alamata and Korem after a federal military command post withdrew from the area.

Further fighting broke out in August 2026 in western Tigray near the border with Sudan, representing another major breach of the peace deal. Both the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF blamed each other for initiating the conflict. Key issues from the 2022 deal remain unsettled, including the return of displaced people to contested regions such as Welkait.

Shifting Regional Alliances

The post-war period has also seen unexpected diplomatic realignments. Despite fighting against each other in a 1998–2000 border war and again during the 2020–2022 conflict, reports indicate recent contact between TPLF representatives and Eritrean officials, including meetings in Dubai and Zalambessa.

The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF as a proxy force, a claim Eritrea denies. Simultaneously, an informal opposition alliance named Tsimdo has emerged. Zemene Kassie, a leader of the Fano militia, confirmed the existence of cooperation between the TPLF, Fano, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), while clarifying that Eritrea is not currently part of the coalition.

Background

The Tigray war began in late 2020 following escalating political tension between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF, which had been the dominant political force in Ethiopia for nearly three decades prior to 2018. The two-year civil war resulted in extensive loss of life, widespread displacement, and severe disruption to infrastructure and public services across northern Ethiopia. Brokered by the African Union, the 2022 Pretoria Agreement established terms for restoring federal authority, disarming regional forces, and facilitating humanitarian access and reconstruction.